A theory of behavioural economics, it hypothesises that in an economic downturn, consumers – mostly women – will continue to spend on or indulge in small luxuries, such as lipstick, in place of cutting back on bigger purchases.
The interchangeable term Lipstick Index entered mainstream consciousness during the early 2000s recession, coined by Estee Lauder Companies heir Leonard Lauder in 2001, when he noticed a spike in the company's lipstick sales post-9/11.
In 2025, with recession indicators both real and imagined on everyone's minds, conspicuous growth in a new beauty category has brought the lipstick effect back in view: peptide-infused lip treatments.
These hybrid, often lightly tinted, lip products, bridge make-up and skincare, addressing a growing demand for lip care that doubles as make-up.
New York City-based beauty trend tracker Spate's Popularity Index found that peptide lip treatments grew by 327.3 per cent in 2025 compared with 2024 across platforms. TikTok holds 96 per cent of the popularity share, with searches increasing by 345.7 per cent over the past year.
In a March report, American market research firm Circana revealed that lip treatments are becoming skincare's fastest-growing segment, with value growth of 69 per cent in Britain in 2024.
Many credit American model and entrepreneur Hailey Bieber for jumpstarting the trend with her brand Rhode Skin's Peptide Lip Treatment, which launched in June 2022. Since then, the beauty market has been flooded with all manner of lip treatments.
Lancome recently brought back its Juicy Tubes – a shiny lip gloss that was a staple of the 1990s. Dior Beauty also jumped on the bandwagon, releasing the Dior Addict Lip Glow Butter in June, a shiny lip treatment infused with peptides and ceramide for juicy lips.
Are these the new manifestation of the Lipstick Effect? The Straits Times reviews five products available in Singapore.
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