Estée Lauder Companies (NYSE:EL) will report earnings on Wednesday, August 20, 2025. For event-driven traders, reviewing historical stock behavior around earnings may provide an edge.
Over the past five years, the stock has displayed a recurring pattern of negative one-day returns after earnings. In 70% of those instances, the one-day return was negative. The median one-day decline was -7.3%, and the largest single-day drop was -20.9%. This history indicates a tendency for the stock to fall on the day following its earnings release.
While the actual move will hinge on how the results stack up against analyst expectations, incorporating this history can be a useful part of a trading plan. Traders might consider two primary approaches:
The current consensus for the upcoming report is earnings per share of $0.09 on sales of $3.4 billion. That compares with the same quarter last year, when the company posted earnings of $0.64 per share on sales of $3.87 billion.
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Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns after earnings are summarized with the statistics in the table below.
A relatively lower-risk approach (though not effective if correlation is weak) is to assess the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns around earnings, identify the pair with the strongest correlation, and structure the trade accordingly. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader could go "long" for the next 5 days when the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) histories. Note that 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
Reference: Found here
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